2026-07-07 US Trading Journal — Maine
Key takeaways
- 116 closed trades, win rate 55.2%, expectancy +1.10% per trade.
- Profit factor 3.29 · avg win +2.87% vs avg loss -1.07% (R:R 2.68).
- Best +10.63% / worst -2.93% — every closed trade counted, losses included.
- Paper-trading simulation, not investment advice.
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Closed trades | 116 (64W / 52L) |
| Win rate | 55.2% |
| Expectancy / trade | +1.10% |
| Profit factor | 3.29 |
| Avg win / avg loss | +2.87% / -1.07% |
| Best / worst | +10.63% / -2.93% |
Recap
The day’s closed activity showed a positive expectancy of +1.10% per trade, supported by a profit factor of 3.29. The win rate settled at 55.2%, indicating that the average winning trade (+2.87%) more than offset the average losing trade (-1.07%). The notable gains in names like ANET and DELL provided strong positive anchors to the session’s performance 
. Conversely, the losses incurred on names such as TAP and MMM highlighted areas where the market moved against the established directional bias 
.
Lessons from the Outliers
The trades that resulted in losses, particularly those involving established names like MMM and VRSK, suggest that resistance levels or shifts in sector sentiment can quickly negate initial positive momentum. The magnitude of the best win (+10.63%) compared to the worst loss (-2.93%) underscores the importance of risk management discipline, as the ratio of positive outcomes to negative outcomes was quite favorable today. It is clear that while capturing large moves is possible, the downside risk remains substantial when conviction wavers 
.
Observation
Overall, the structure of the closed trades suggests that while the directional conviction was rewarded on several occasions, the market environment presented distinct pockets of resistance that were difficult to navigate cleanly. The positive expectancy remains a solid metric to observe as the underlying equity structure continues to evolve.
This research note reflects a paper-trading simulation and does not constitute investment advice.
Closed trades (chronological)
116 trades closed today. Excluding micro-scalps, 116 meaningful trades (held 30m+ or P&L ±1%+), earliest entry first.
| Result | Symbol | Buy | Sell | P&L | Held | Entry → Exit (KST) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| loss | Masco Corporation(MAS) | 82.01 | 81.12 | -1.09% | 94.5h | 07-03 02:15 → 07-07 00:45 |
| loss | Tapestry, Inc.(TPR) | 143.70 | 143.50 | -0.14% | 92.4h | 07-03 02:15 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | KLA Corporation(KLAC) | 231.10 | 239.90 | +3.81% | 93.1h | 07-03 03:00 → 07-07 00:05 |
| loss | Ralph Lauren Corporation(RL) | 395.70 | 394.70 | -0.25% | 94.3h | 07-03 03:00 → 07-07 01:20 |
| loss | Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.(ODFL) | 217.80 | 216.30 | -0.69% | 93.0h | 07-03 03:05 → 07-07 00:05 |
| win | Smurfit WestRock plc(SW) | 45.02 | 45.36 | +0.76% | 94.7h | 07-03 03:10 → 07-07 01:50 |
| win | Texas Instruments Incorporated(TXN) | 289.50 | 301.50 | +4.15% | 91.4h | 07-03 03:15 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | NVR, Inc.(NVR) | 6,690 | 6,567 | -1.84% | 93.5h | 07-03 03:15 → 07-07 00:45 |
| win | Omnicom Group Inc.(OMC) | 78.13 | 78.94 | +1.04% | 91.4h | 07-03 03:15 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Transdigm Group Incorporated(TDG) | 1,335 | 1,344 | +0.67% | 91.2h | 07-03 03:25 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Keysight Technologies Inc.(KEYS) | 313.50 | 325.00 | +3.67% | 93.0h | 07-03 03:45 → 07-07 00:45 |
| loss | PulteGroup, Inc.(PHM) | 133.00 | 131.00 | -1.50% | 93.2h | 07-03 03:45 → 07-07 00:55 |
| win | Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE) | 718.40 | 743.50 | +3.49% | 92.3h | 07-03 03:45 → 07-07 00:05 |
| win | Hubbell Inc(HUBB) | 483.40 | 496.70 | +2.75% | 95.5h | 07-03 03:50 → 07-07 03:20 |
| loss | FirstEnergy Corp.(FE) | 48.41 | 48.21 | -0.41% | 90.8h | 07-03 03:50 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Western Digital Corporation(WDC) | 534.10 | 583.30 | +9.21% | 90.8h | 07-03 03:50 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | Verisk Analytics, Inc.(VRSK) | 189.70 | 185.00 | -2.48% | 90.8h | 07-03 03:50 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | TJX Companies, Inc. (The)(TJX) | 153.70 | 150.90 | -1.82% | 90.8h | 07-03 03:50 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | CMS Energy Corporation(CMS) | 77.37 | 76.49 | -1.14% | 91.9h | 07-03 03:50 → 07-06 23:45 |
| win | Lam Research Corporation(LRCX) | 348.00 | 363.60 | +4.48% | 92.1h | 07-03 03:50 → 07-06 23:55 |
| win | Super Micro Computer, Inc.(SMCI) | 26.97 | 27.18 | +0.78% | 90.8h | 07-03 03:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | Xylem Inc.(XYL) | 118.50 | 117.60 | -0.76% | 90.8h | 07-03 03:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | PTC Inc.(PTC) | 125.30 | 124.20 | -0.88% | 91.5h | 07-03 04:05 → 07-06 23:35 |
| win | Amazon.com, Inc.(AMZN) | 244.50 | 244.60 | +0.04% | 93.8h | 07-03 04:05 → 07-07 01:55 |
| loss | 3M Company(MMM) | 160.70 | 157.00 | -2.30% | 92.0h | 07-03 04:05 → 07-07 00:05 |
| win | Delta Air Lines, Inc.(DAL) | 92.56 | 94.48 | +2.07% | 90.6h | 07-03 04:05 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Carrier Global Corporation(CARR) | 69.83 | 69.90 | +0.10% | 90.5h | 07-03 04:10 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Microchip Technology Incorporat(MCHP) | 83.93 | 89.13 | +6.20% | 91.9h | 07-03 04:10 → 07-07 00:05 |
| loss | Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings(NCLH) | 19.74 | 19.44 | -1.52% | 93.7h | 07-03 04:10 → 07-07 01:50 |
| win | Moderna, Inc.(MRNA) | 78.99 | 83.53 | +5.75% | 93.4h | 07-03 04:10 → 07-07 01:35 |
| win | Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.(MPWR) | 1,277 | 1,362 | +6.66% | 91.4h | 07-03 04:10 → 07-06 23:35 |
| win | ON Semiconductor Corporation(ON) | 90.84 | 98.34 | +8.26% | 91.4h | 07-03 04:10 → 07-06 23:35 |
| win | EMCOR Group, Inc.(EME) | 768.40 | 796.00 | +3.59% | 92.6h | 07-03 04:10 → 07-07 00:45 |
| loss | Healthpeak Properties, Inc.(DOC) | 21.84 | 21.84 | +0.00% | 90.3h | 07-03 04:20 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | The Cooper Companies, Inc.(COO) | 73.77 | 72.36 | -1.91% | 94.0h | 07-03 04:20 → 07-07 02:20 |
| win | Corning Incorporated(GLW) | 195.30 | 198.50 | +1.64% | 91.8h | 07-03 04:20 → 07-07 00:10 |
| win | Jabil Inc.(JBL) | 340.50 | 347.30 | +2.00% | 91.8h | 07-03 04:20 → 07-07 00:05 |
| win | JP Morgan Chase & Co.(JPM) | 334.20 | 335.70 | +0.45% | 93.0h | 07-03 04:20 → 07-07 01:20 |
| win | Mosaic Company (The)(MOS) | 21.08 | 21.19 | +0.52% | 91.2h | 07-03 04:20 → 07-06 23:35 |
| win | Micron Technology, Inc.(MU) | 962.20 | 997.70 | +3.69% | 91.8h | 07-03 04:20 → 07-07 00:10 |
| win | ServiceNow, Inc.(NOW) | 107.00 | 108.50 | +1.40% | 95.2h | 07-03 04:20 → 07-07 03:30 |
| win | Northern Trust Corporation(NTRS) | 175.70 | 179.90 | +2.39% | 92.4h | 07-03 04:20 → 07-07 00:45 |
| loss | Molson Coors Beverage Company(TAP) | 39.91 | 38.74 | -2.93% | 90.3h | 07-03 04:20 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Teradyne, Inc.(TER) | 367.60 | 390.20 | +6.15% | 90.3h | 07-03 04:20 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Generac Holdlings Inc.(GNRC) | 254.00 | 259.70 | +2.24% | 92.2h | 07-03 04:25 → 07-07 00:35 |
| win | TE Connectivity plc(TEL) | 195.80 | 201.10 | +2.71% | 90.2h | 07-03 04:25 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Sandisk Corporation(SNDK) | 1,723 | 1,787 | +3.71% | 91.8h | 07-03 04:25 → 07-07 00:10 |
| win | NXP Semiconductors N.V.(NXPI) | 270.00 | 285.50 | +5.74% | 91.8h | 07-03 04:25 → 07-07 00:10 |
| loss | Prologis, Inc.(PLD) | 138.80 | 138.50 | -0.22% | 91.5h | 07-03 04:25 → 07-06 23:55 |
| win | QUALCOMM Incorporated(QCOM) | 174.00 | 187.20 | +7.59% | 92.3h | 07-03 04:25 → 07-07 00:45 |
| loss | Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN) | 164.60 | 163.80 | -0.49% | 91.6h | 07-03 04:30 → 07-07 00:05 |
| win | Arista Networks, Inc.(ANET) | 158.00 | 174.80 | +10.63% | 91.1h | 07-03 04:30 → 07-06 23:35 |
| loss | Hormel Foods Corporation(HRL) | 25.12 | 24.63 | -1.95% | 90.2h | 07-03 04:30 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Ciena Corporation(CIEN) | 417.50 | 438.40 | +5.01% | 91.4h | 07-03 04:45 → 07-07 00:10 |
| win | NRG Energy, Inc.(NRG) | 135.70 | 139.10 | +2.51% | 89.9h | 07-03 04:45 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD) | 195.80 | 198.90 | +1.58% | 89.9h | 07-03 04:45 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | HP Inc.(HPQ) | 21.77 | 21.81 | +0.18% | 89.9h | 07-03 04:45 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Hewlett Packard Enterprise Comp(HPE) | 41.05 | 43.35 | +5.60% | 91.3h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-07 00:10 |
| win | Vertiv Holdings, LLC(VRT) | 300.70 | 321.20 | +6.82% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | Expand Energy Corporation(EXE) | 90.72 | 89.09 | -1.80% | 91.2h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-07 00:05 |
| loss | EOG Resources, Inc.(EOG) | 130.70 | 129.60 | -0.84% | 92.8h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-07 01:40 |
| win | Analog Devices, Inc.(ADI) | 376.60 | 393.60 | +4.51% | 91.3h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-07 00:10 |
| loss | Dollar Tree, Inc.(DLTR) | 124.20 | 121.50 | -2.17% | 92.2h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-07 01:05 |
| loss | D.R. Horton, Inc.(DHI) | 157.80 | 157.40 | -0.25% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL) | 389.80 | 426.90 | +9.52% | 90.8h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-06 23:35 |
| loss | Microsoft Corporation(MSFT) | 391.80 | 384.50 | -1.86% | 93.1h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-07 01:55 |
| win | Cisco Systems, Inc.(CSCO) | 112.60 | 113.40 | +0.71% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | Williams-Sonoma, Inc.(WSM) | 225.70 | 225.20 | -0.22% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | Costco Wholesale Corporation(COST) | 949.10 | 943.20 | -0.62% | 90.8h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-06 23:35 |
| win | Capital One Financial Corporati(COF) | 204.10 | 207.10 | +1.47% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | PACCAR Inc.(PCAR) | 119.60 | 121.90 | +1.92% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | CenterPoint Energy, Inc (Holdin(CNP) | 44.35 | 44.33 | -0.05% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | Pentair plc.(PNR) | 76.81 | 76.65 | -0.21% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Prudential Financial, Inc.(PRU) | 112.50 | 113.40 | +0.80% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Raymond James Financial, Inc.(RJF) | 163.00 | 164.10 | +0.67% | 90.8h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-06 23:35 |
| win | Skyworks Solutions, Inc.(SWKS) | 62.69 | 63.80 | +1.77% | 91.2h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-07 00:05 |
| win | Assurant, Inc.(AIZ) | 277.60 | 277.80 | +0.07% | 91.2h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-07 00:05 |
| loss | Block, Inc.(XYZ) | 78.62 | 78.57 | -0.06% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Best Buy Co., Inc.(BBY) | 77.94 | 78.02 | +0.10% | 92.2h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-07 01:05 |
| loss | Baxter International Inc.(BAX) | 22.60 | 22.25 | -1.55% | 91.2h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-07 00:05 |
| loss | The Travelers Companies, Inc.(TRV) | 340.10 | 339.40 | -0.21% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | Extra Space Storage Inc(EXR) | 149.40 | 146.10 | -2.21% | 91.9h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-07 00:45 |
| win | Ford Motor Company(F) | 13.33 | 13.62 | +2.18% | 90.8h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-06 23:35 |
| win | Freeport-McMoRan, Inc.(FCX) | 60.26 | 60.79 | +0.88% | 91.1h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-06 23:55 |
| loss | Expedia Group, Inc.(EXPE) | 268.50 | 266.20 | -0.86% | 91.9h | 07-03 04:50 → 07-07 00:45 |
| loss | Paramount Skydance Corporation(PSKY) | 10.27 | 10.19 | -0.78% | 91.2h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-07 00:05 |
| win | KKR & Co. Inc.(KKR) | 93.02 | 95.89 | +3.09% | 92.4h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-07 01:20 |
| win | Westinghouse Air Brake Technolo(WAB) | 260.70 | 262.40 | +0.65% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.(RCL) | 297.70 | 291.10 | -2.22% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | U.S. Bancorp(USB) | 61.57 | 62.42 | +1.38% | 90.7h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 23:35 |
| loss | Charter Communications, Inc.(CHTR) | 135.40 | 133.20 | -1.62% | 91.2h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-07 00:05 |
| win | C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.(CHRW) | 190.00 | 190.40 | +0.21% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | IDEXX Laboratories, Inc.(IDXX) | 555.80 | 556.30 | +0.09% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | Carnival Corporation Ltd.(CCL) | 27.96 | 27.90 | -0.21% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | Alexandria Real Estate Equities(ARE) | 52.70 | 51.63 | -2.03% | 91.2h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-07 00:05 |
| loss | Fox Corporation(FOX) | 50.25 | 49.74 | -1.01% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | DuPont de Nemours, Inc.(DD) | 139.50 | 140.70 | +0.86% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | Brown Forman Inc(BF-B) | 26.16 | 25.60 | -2.14% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Deere & Company(DE) | 617.60 | 619.90 | +0.37% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Humana Inc.(HUM) | 392.50 | 399.00 | +1.66% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | W.R. Berkley Corporation(WRB) | 71.98 | 71.34 | -0.89% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. -(WBD) | 26.50 | 26.34 | -0.60% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | VeriSign, Inc.(VRSN) | 257.40 | 254.80 | -1.01% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.(MLM) | 594.80 | 600.50 | +0.96% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | News Corporation(NWS) | 29.91 | 29.89 | -0.07% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | Darden Restaurants, Inc.(DRI) | 204.60 | 204.20 | -0.20% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | Expeditors International of Was(EXPD) | 167.50 | 167.10 | -0.24% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | Linde plc(LIN) | 545.10 | 540.00 | -0.94% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | Home Depot, Inc. (The)(HD) | 357.60 | 351.60 | -1.68% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Targa Resources, Inc.(TRGP) | 257.00 | 259.50 | +0.97% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Principal Financial Group Inc(PFG) | 110.50 | 111.40 | +0.81% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | Comfort Systems USA, Inc.(FIX) | 1,730 | 1,821 | +5.26% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | Lennox International, Inc.(LII) | 565.10 | 563.30 | -0.32% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| loss | Philip Morris International Inc(PM) | 183.20 | 181.90 | -0.71% | 91.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-07 00:45 |
| loss | American Water Works Company, I(AWK) | 136.70 | 134.00 | -1.98% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
| win | United Airlines Holdings, Inc.(UAL) | 132.70 | 136.30 | +2.71% | 89.8h | 07-03 04:55 → 07-06 22:40 |
As of 2026-07-07 (KST).
Disclaimer: OneQAZ figures are paper-trading research, not investment advice. Past simulated performance does not predict future real-money results.
Three ways to see OneQAZ — this post is the synthesis layer:
- Live — dashboard stream (the system’s screen, 24/7)
- Synthesis — blog.oneqaz.com (daily reads · journals · track record)
- Query — OneQAZ MCP (connect an AI to live data)