2026-07-12 Crypto Trading Journal — Bengal
⚠️ Correction (2026-07-16): A simulation data defect affecting 2026-07-08 through 07-15 was found, and this journal has been corrected and republished. A signal-persistence failure caused entries to be recorded at stale signal prices instead of live market prices, producing simulated trades at prices and returns that could not have existed in the market. The defective trades have been quarantined from the ledger and the engine has been repaired. This republished version reflects verified, valid trades only.
Key takeaways
- 33 closed trades, win rate 54.5%, expectancy -0.40% per trade.
- Profit factor 0.66 · avg win +1.45% vs avg loss -2.63% (R:R 0.55).
- Best +4.25% / worst -4.03% — every closed trade counted, losses included.
- Paper-trading simulation, not investment advice.
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Closed trades | 33 (18W / 15L) |
| Win rate | 54.5% |
| Expectancy / trade | -0.40% |
| Profit factor | 0.66 |
| Avg win / avg loss | +1.45% / -2.63% |
| Best / worst | +4.25% / -4.03% |
Recap
The day’s closed activity involved 33 trades, resulting in a win rate of 54.5%. The overall expectancy for the closed trades registered at -0.40% per trade. The profit factor was 0.66, indicating that the average loss magnitude outweighed the average win magnitude. Notable positive outcomes included gains on UMA (+4.25%), WAXL (+3.27%), and POKT (+3.25%). Conversely, the largest drawdowns were observed on EDGE (-4.03%), TRUMP (-4.02%), and DEEP (-3.81%). The average winning trade size (+1.45%) was significantly smaller than the average losing trade size (-2.63%). 
Analysis of Outcomes
The performance metrics suggest that the magnitude of losses was a significant drag on overall profitability today. The disparity between the average win and average loss suggests that the risk taken on losing trades was disproportionately larger than the reward secured on winning trades. The depth of the losses, particularly the -4.03% on EDGE, indicates instances where initial thesis assumptions were significantly challenged by market movement. 
Observations
The negative expectancy, despite a positive win rate, highlights the importance of risk management relative to reward capture. The largest single loss (-4.03%) was comparable in magnitude to the best gain (+4.25%), suggesting that the risk parameters were not consistently balanced across the set of trades executed. 
This research note reflects a paper-trading simulation and does not constitute investment advice.
Closed trades (chronological)
33 trades closed today. Excluding micro-scalps, 33 meaningful trades (held 30m+ or P&L ±1%+), earliest entry first.
| Result | Symbol | Buy | Sell | P&L | Held | Entry → Exit (KST) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| loss | DAO Maker(DAO) | 41.67 | 41.32 | -0.84% | 60.0h | 07-09 12:00 → 07-12 00:00 |
| loss | ELYSIA(EL) | 1.84 | 1.84 | +0.00% | 68.8h | 07-09 12:00 → 07-12 08:45 |
| win | 가스(GAS) | 1,539 | 1,582 | +2.79% | 59.0h | 07-09 12:00 → 07-11 23:00 |
| win | 엑셀라(WAXL) | 60.55 | 62.53 | +3.27% | 52.2h | 07-09 17:45 → 07-11 22:00 |
| win | Pocket Network(POKT) | 11.71 | 12.09 | +3.25% | 62.2h | 07-10 03:30 → 07-12 17:45 |
| win | Stader(SD) | 173.20 | 173.80 | +0.35% | 40.8h | 07-10 08:00 → 07-12 00:45 |
| loss | yearn.finance(YFI) | 3,210,207 | 3,104,892 | -3.28% | 44.2h | 07-10 12:00 → 07-12 08:15 |
| win | 코어(CORE) | 37.51 | 38.41 | +2.40% | 32.8h | 07-10 13:45 → 07-11 22:30 |
| loss | Definitive(EDGE) | 104.10 | 99.90 | -4.03% | 32.0h | 07-10 13:45 → 07-11 21:45 |
| win | Livepeer(LPT) | 2,333 | 2,334 | +0.04% | 40.0h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-12 11:15 |
| loss | Mask Network(MASK) | 603.60 | 584.40 | -3.18% | 36.8h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-12 08:00 |
| win | 네오(NEO) | 2,895 | 2,905 | +0.35% | 37.0h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-12 08:15 |
| loss | Nexpace(NXPC) | 397.40 | 384.60 | -3.22% | 48.2h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-12 19:30 |
| win | 온도파이낸스(ONDO) | 487.50 | 491.50 | +0.82% | 36.5h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-12 07:45 |
| loss | Pudgy Penguins(PENGU) | 9.41 | 9.06 | -3.66% | 37.0h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-12 08:15 |
| win | Zilliqa(ZIL) | 4.50 | 4.51 | +0.31% | 26.0h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-11 21:15 |
| loss | Avalanche(AVAX) | 10,070 | 9,715 | -3.53% | 37.8h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-12 09:00 |
| loss | BitBat Token(BAT) | 129.10 | 124.90 | -3.25% | 43.0h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-12 14:15 |
| win | Cobak(CBK) | 269.30 | 269.70 | +0.15% | 40.8h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-12 12:00 |
| win | Civic(CVC) | 30.43 | 30.66 | +0.76% | 39.5h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-12 10:45 |
| loss | DeepBook(DEEP) | 27.56 | 26.51 | -3.81% | 37.0h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-12 08:15 |
| loss | Ethereum Classic(ETC) | 10,601 | 10,250 | -3.31% | 38.2h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-12 09:30 |
| loss | Ethereum(ETH) | 2,670,668 | 2,668,329 | -0.09% | 37.5h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-12 08:45 |
| win | Chainlink(LINK) | 11,872 | 11,898 | +0.22% | 36.8h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-12 08:00 |
| loss | Official Trump(TRUMP) | 2,438 | 2,340 | -4.02% | 37.8h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-12 09:00 |
| win | Yield Guild Games(YGG) | 32.66 | 33.31 | +1.99% | 29.2h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-12 00:30 |
| win | 우마(UMA) | 560.60 | 584.40 | +4.25% | 27.0h | 07-10 19:30 → 07-11 22:30 |
| win | Newton Protocol(NEWT) | 71.09 | 71.11 | +0.03% | 36.0h | 07-10 19:45 → 07-12 07:45 |
| loss | MyShell(SHELL) | 32.55 | 31.54 | -3.10% | 37.2h | 07-10 21:00 → 07-12 10:15 |
| win | 아크(ARK) | 159.20 | 162.80 | +2.26% | 36.0h | 07-10 22:15 → 07-12 10:15 |
| win | 수이(SUI) | 1,088 | 1,090 | +0.18% | 33.2h | 07-10 23:00 → 07-12 08:15 |
| loss | Clearpool(CPOOL) | 28.59 | 28.57 | -0.07% | 23.5h | 07-11 00:00 → 07-11 23:30 |
| win | Hyperlane(HYPER) | 101.10 | 103.90 | +2.77% | 3.0h | 07-12 03:30 → 07-12 06:30 |
As of 2026-07-12 (KST).
Disclaimer: OneQAZ figures are paper-trading research, not investment advice. Past simulated performance does not predict future real-money results.
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