2026-07-13 Crypto Trading Journal — Bengal
⚠️ Correction (2026-07-16): A simulation data defect affecting 2026-07-08 through 07-15 was found, and this journal has been corrected and republished. A signal-persistence failure caused entries to be recorded at stale signal prices instead of live market prices, producing simulated trades at prices and returns that could not have existed in the market. The defective trades have been quarantined from the ledger and the engine has been repaired. This republished version reflects verified, valid trades only.
Key takeaways
- 30 closed trades, win rate 20.0%, expectancy -1.65% per trade.
- Profit factor 0.35 · avg win +4.37% vs avg loss -3.15% (R:R 1.39).
- Best +17.28% / worst -4.08% — every closed trade counted, losses included.
- Paper-trading simulation, not investment advice.
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Closed trades | 30 (6W / 24L) |
| Win rate | 20.0% |
| Expectancy / trade | -1.65% |
| Profit factor | 0.35 |
| Avg win / avg loss | +4.37% / -3.15% |
| Best / worst | +17.28% / -4.08% |
Recap
The recent set of closed trades reflects a challenging period of negative expected value, with an average loss per trade significantly outweighing the average gain. The performance metrics—a 20.0% win rate and a profit factor below 1.0—indicate that the frequency of losses is materially impacting the overall return profile. While notable gains were observed, such as the 17.28% move on Origin Token (OGN), these were insufficient to offset the cumulative drawdowns experienced across several positions, including the -4.08% on 코티 (COTI) and -3.91% on Ontology Gas (ONG). 
Analysis of Outcomes
The losses incurred across the sample suggest a pattern where initial momentum, even when captured in smaller wins, was quickly eroded by subsequent, larger negative deviations. Specifically, the trades that resulted in the largest losses were characterized by a relatively swift reversal from the entry point. This suggests that the market structure during these specific instances did not sustain the initial directional bias captured by the trades. 
Observations
The data points toward a regime where capturing positive volatility is difficult to sustain across multiple uncorrelated assets. The disparity between the average win (+4.37%) and the average loss (-3.15%) is less concerning than the overall negative expectancy (-1.65%/trade). The weight of the negative outcomes suggests that the risk taken on the losing legs was disproportionately high relative to the realized gains. 
This research note is for analytical review only and does not constitute investment advice.
Closed trades (chronological)
30 trades closed today. Excluding micro-scalps, 30 meaningful trades (held 30m+ or P&L ±1%+), earliest entry first.
| Result | Symbol | Buy | Sell | P&L | Held | Entry → Exit (KST) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| loss | 보라(BORA) | 36.50 | 35.35 | -3.15% | 150.8h | 07-07 11:30 → 07-13 18:15 |
| loss | 카바(KAVA) | 65.84 | 65.84 | +0.00% | 104.0h | 07-09 12:00 → 07-13 20:00 |
| loss | 코티(COTI) | 12.01 | 11.52 | -4.08% | 72.5h | 07-10 12:00 → 07-13 12:30 |
| win | Hashflow(HFT) | 13.21 | 13.38 | +1.29% | 62.0h | 07-10 12:00 → 07-13 02:00 |
| loss | Illuvium(ILV) | 4,651 | 4,490 | -3.46% | 75.8h | 07-10 13:45 → 07-13 17:30 |
| loss | Dogecoin(DOGE) | 111.10 | 106.90 | -3.78% | 64.8h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-13 12:00 |
| loss | 스테픈(GMT) | 11.39 | 11.03 | -3.16% | 65.2h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-13 12:30 |
| win | 훅트프로토콜(HOOK) | 7.65 | 7.82 | +2.20% | 53.0h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-13 00:15 |
| loss | 조라(ZORA) | 10.42 | 10.08 | -3.26% | 59.8h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-13 07:00 |
| loss | Cosmos Hub(ATOM) | 2,357 | 2,284 | -3.10% | 68.8h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-13 16:00 |
| loss | 카브(CARV) | 50.72 | 48.91 | -3.57% | 65.0h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-13 12:15 |
| loss | CoW Protocol(COW) | 210.20 | 202.80 | -3.52% | 65.5h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-13 12:45 |
| win | Creditcoin(CTC) | 123.10 | 125.90 | +2.27% | 64.0h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-13 11:15 |
| loss | JasmyCoin(JASMY) | 6.78 | 6.55 | -3.28% | 58.5h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-13 05:45 |
| loss | Joe Coin(JOE) | 42.34 | 40.99 | -3.19% | 60.0h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-13 07:15 |
| loss | 카이아(KAIA) | 52.47 | 50.72 | -3.34% | 71.8h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-13 19:00 |
| win | Origin Token(OGN) | 24.82 | 29.11 | +17.28% | 50.5h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-12 21:45 |
| win | Request(REQ) | 79.40 | 81.90 | +3.15% | 53.0h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-13 00:15 |
| loss | 웨이브(WAVES) | 392.40 | 379.60 | -3.26% | 63.5h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-13 10:45 |
| loss | eCash(XEC) | 0.0078 | 0.0075 | -3.85% | 60.5h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-13 07:45 |
| loss | Aptos(APT) | 935.90 | 902.10 | -3.61% | 59.8h | 07-10 19:15 → 07-13 07:00 |
| loss | Initia(INIT) | 83.77 | 81.17 | -3.10% | 59.5h | 07-10 20:00 → 07-13 07:30 |
| loss | Ontology Gas(ONG) | 72.68 | 69.84 | -3.91% | 63.0h | 07-10 20:00 → 07-13 11:00 |
| loss | Haedal Protocol(HAEDAL) | 24.80 | 24.00 | -3.23% | 59.0h | 07-10 20:45 → 07-13 07:45 |
| loss | Moca Network(MOCA) | 13.37 | 12.88 | -3.66% | 60.2h | 07-10 21:15 → 07-13 09:30 |
| loss | Paycoin(PCI) | 55.99 | 55.95 | -0.07% | 62.0h | 07-10 23:00 → 07-13 13:00 |
| loss | SuperVerse(SUPER) | 129.10 | 124.90 | -3.25% | 59.8h | 07-11 00:45 → 07-13 12:30 |
| loss | 미라(MIRA) | 65.51 | 63.41 | -3.21% | 22.5h | 07-12 00:30 → 07-12 23:00 |
| loss | Newton Protocol(NEWT) | 71.09 | 68.54 | -3.59% | 28.0h | 07-12 08:00 → 07-13 12:00 |
| win | Chainlink(LINK) | 11,872 | 11,878 | +0.05% | 22.0h | 07-12 09:00 → 07-13 07:00 |
As of 2026-07-13 (KST).
Disclaimer: OneQAZ figures are paper-trading research, not investment advice. Past simulated performance does not predict future real-money results.
Three ways to see OneQAZ — this post is the synthesis layer:
- Live — dashboard stream (the system’s screen, 24/7)
- Synthesis — blog.oneqaz.com (daily reads · journals · track record)
- Query — OneQAZ MCP (connect an AI to live data)