2026-07-29 US Trading Journal — Maine
Key takeaways
- 168 closed trades, win rate 51.8%, expectancy +0.45% per trade.
- Profit factor 1.45 · avg win +2.79% vs avg loss -2.07% (R:R 1.35).
- Best +8.48% / worst -12.16% — every closed trade counted, losses included.
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Closed trades | 168 (87W / 81L) |
| Win rate | 51.8% |
| Expectancy / trade | +0.45% |
| Profit factor | 1.45 |
| Avg win / avg loss | +2.79% / -2.07% |
| Best / worst | +8.48% / -12.16% |
Recap
The day’s closed activity showed a positive expectancy of +0.45% per trade, supported by a win rate of 51.8% and a profit factor of 1.45. The average winning trade (+2.79%) significantly exceeded the average losing trade (-2.07%), contributing to the overall positive return profile. Notable gains included significant appreciation in WDAY (+8.48%) and SHW (+7.91%), suggesting successful captures on specific sector strength. Conversely, the largest drawdowns were observed in GLW (-12.16%) and LITE (-10.97%), indicating moments where the market moved sharply against the established positions 
.
Observations
The performance metrics suggest that while the directional bias was generally favorable, the magnitude of the losses relative to the wins warrants attention. The spread between the best outcome (+8.48%) and the worst outcome (-12.16%) is substantial. The losses, particularly those exceeding 10%, highlight instances where underlying market structure or sector rotation proved more forceful than anticipated, even when initial signals appeared sound. These outcomes emphasize the non-linear nature of equity movements 
.
For Next Time
The trades that resulted in the largest losses—specifically those involving GLW, LITE, and STX—suggest that exposure to certain cyclical or technology-sensitive names carries a higher degree of tail risk than the successful captures in industrials or software names. The data points toward a need to better calibrate risk sizing when sector momentum appears to be reversing sharply, rather than simply tracking mean reversion. The overall positive expectancy remains a solid foundation, but the variance observed in the losing trades is the primary area for analytical focus 
.
Notable trades (top 5 wins · top 5 losses)
| Result | Symbol | Buy | Sell | P&L | Held | Entry → Exit (KST) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | Workday, Inc.(WDAY) | 147.40 | 159.90 | +8.48% | 23.2h | 07-28 01:35 → 07-29 00:45 |
| win | HP Inc.(HPQ) | 25.87 | 27.92 | +7.92% | 93.3h | 07-25 03:30 → 07-29 00:50 |
| win | Sherwin-Williams Company (The)(SHW) | 327.40 | 353.30 | +7.91% | 20.3h | 07-28 04:25 → 07-29 00:45 |
| win | Charter Communications, Inc.(CHTR) | 130.40 | 139.10 | +6.67% | 21.5h | 07-28 04:05 → 07-29 01:35 |
| win | PTC Inc.(PTC) | 122.20 | 129.20 | +5.73% | 25.2h | 07-27 23:50 → 07-29 01:00 |
| loss | Corning Incorporated(GLW) | 139.00 | 122.10 | -12.16% | 21.8h | 07-28 00:45 → 07-28 22:35 |
| loss | Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE) | 721.10 | 642.00 | -10.97% | 17.7h | 07-28 04:55 → 07-28 22:35 |
| loss | Seagate Technology Holdings PLC(STX) | 814.30 | 744.20 | -8.61% | 20.6h | 07-28 02:00 → 07-28 22:35 |
| loss | Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL) | 419.40 | 384.80 | -8.25% | 22.2h | 07-28 00:20 → 07-28 22:35 |
| loss | Sandisk Corporation(SNDK) | 1,262 | 1,174 | -6.97% | 19.8h | 07-28 02:45 → 07-28 22:35 |
Full data — all 168 closed trades: CSV download · or query live via OneQAZ MCP.
Related
- All-time track record: /track-record/all-time/
As of 2026-07-29 (KST).
Disclaimer: OneQAZ figures are paper-trading research, not investment advice. Past simulated performance does not predict future real-money results.
Three ways to see OneQAZ — this post is the synthesis layer:
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