2026-09-15 Crypto Trading Journal — Bengal
Key takeaways
- 377 closed trades, win rate 41.4%, expectancy -0.52% per trade.
- Profit factor 0.70 · avg win +3.00% vs avg loss -3.00% (R:R 1.00).
- Best +29.78% / worst -9.93% — every closed trade counted, losses included.
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Closed trades | 377 (156W / 221L) |
| Win rate | 41.4% |
| Expectancy / trade | -0.52% |
| Profit factor | 0.70 |
| Avg win / avg loss | +3.00% / -3.00% |
| Best / worst | +29.78% / -9.93% |
Recap
The day’s closed activity reflects a mixed outcome. Out of 377 trades executed, the win rate settled at 41.4%. The average expected return per trade was negative at -0.52%. Profitability metrics showed a profit factor of 0.70, indicating that losses slightly outweighed gains across the closed set. Notable positive outcomes included significant gains on Astar (ASTR) at +29.78% and Observer (OBSR) at +23.84%. Conversely, losses were recorded on assets such as 캡 (CAP) at -9.93% and GMX at -5.87%. The spread between the best recorded gain and the worst loss was substantial, suggesting high variance in outcomes today 
.
Observations from Losses
The losses observed, particularly the multiple instances on 캡 (CAP), highlight the difficulty in maintaining positive expectancy when the average loss magnitude approaches the average win magnitude. The fact that the average win (+3.00%) and average loss (-3.00%) are symmetrically balanced, while the overall expectancy is negative, suggests that the frequency or size of the negative deviations is currently outweighing the positive captures. This pattern requires careful consideration of risk management relative to realized gains 
.
For Next Time
The data indicates that while significant upside potential exists, the overall risk profile reflected in the closed trades resulted in a net negative expectation. The variance between the best and worst outcomes suggests that while high-reward opportunities were captured, the frequency of losses at a similar magnitude to the average win rate is pulling the overall performance downward. The focus remains on the structural relationship between the win rate, profit factor, and the negative expectancy observed today.
Notable trades (top 5 wins · top 5 losses)
| Result | Symbol | Buy | Sell | P&L | Held | Entry → Exit (KST) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | Astar(ASTR) | 8.19 | 10.63 | +29.78% | 12.0h | 09-14 22:00 → 09-15 10:00 |
| win | Observer(OBSR) | 0.734 | 0.909 | +23.84% | 0.5h | 09-14 23:30 → 09-15 00:00 |
| win | MEVerse(MEV) | 2.88 | 3.39 | +17.81% | 22.2h | 09-14 17:45 → 09-15 16:00 |
| win | 어베일(AVAIL) | 2.74 | 3.06 | +11.48% | 16.0h | 09-14 08:15 → 09-15 00:15 |
| win | Avalon(AVL) | 27.34 | 29.55 | +8.08% | 16.8h | 09-14 07:15 → 09-15 00:00 |
| loss | 캡(CAP) | 93.85 | 84.53 | -9.93% | 0.2h | 09-14 21:15 → 09-14 21:30 |
| loss | 캡(CAP) | 95.96 | 89.31 | -6.93% | 0.2h | 09-14 23:15 → 09-14 23:30 |
| loss | 지엠엑스(GMX) | 10,581 | 9,960 | -5.87% | 70.5h | 09-12 11:30 → 09-15 10:00 |
| loss | Xterio(XTER) | 12.68 | 12.04 | -5.05% | 82.8h | 09-11 13:30 → 09-15 00:15 |
| loss | Artificial Superintelligence Alliance(FET) | 231.20 | 219.80 | -4.93% | 22.2h | 09-14 11:45 → 09-15 10:00 |
Full data — all 377 closed trades: CSV download · or query live via OneQAZ MCP.
Related
- All-time track record: /track-record/all-time/
As of 2026-09-15 (KST).
Disclaimer: OneQAZ figures are paper-trading research, not investment advice. Past simulated performance does not predict future real-money results.
Three ways to see OneQAZ — this post is the synthesis layer:
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- Synthesis — blog.oneqaz.com (daily reads · journals · track record)
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