2026-10-06 US Trading Journal — Maine
Key takeaways
- 177 closed trades, win rate 55.9%, expectancy +0.65% per trade.
- Profit factor 1.78 · avg win +2.63% vs avg loss -1.87% (R:R 1.41).
- Best +33.20% / worst -4.25% — every closed trade counted, losses included.
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Closed trades | 177 (99W / 78L) |
| Win rate | 55.9% |
| Expectancy / trade | +0.65% |
| Profit factor | 1.78 |
| Avg win / avg loss | +2.63% / -1.87% |
| Best / worst | +33.20% / -4.25% |
Recap
The recent set of closed trades showed a positive expectancy of +0.65% per trade, supported by a profit factor of 1.78. The win rate stood at 55.9%, indicating that the average winning trade (+2.63%) was significantly larger than the average losing trade (-1.87%). The notable gains, such as the 33.20% return on PTC Inc., provided strong positive anchors to the overall performance. 
Conversely, the losses were concentrated in names like BX and CHTR, which moved against the prevailing directional bias.
Observations on Performance
The spread between the best outcome (+33.20%) and the worst outcome (-4.25%) suggests a high degree of variance within the tested set. The fact that the average win significantly outweighs the average loss suggests that the positive signals captured were robust enough to overcome the drag from the negative outcomes. It is encouraging to see the outperformance of ADSK and WDC within the closed trades. 
Lessons from Underperformance
The trades that resulted in losses, particularly those involving BX and ARE, highlighted instances where the market structure moved against the initial directional assumption. These instances underscore that even when the overall regime appears favorable, specific sector or stock-level resistance can cause rapid drawdowns. The magnitude of the losses, while smaller than the best gain, suggests that the risk management around these specific names needs careful review. 
For Next Time
The data confirms that the positive expectancy is materially supported by the positive skew of the returns. The structure of the outcomes suggests that while capturing large positive moves is achievable, the downside risk remains present and requires consistent monitoring across different market segments. This paper-trading research serves as a data point on the realized performance metrics.
Notable trades (top 5 wins · top 5 losses)
| Result | Symbol | Buy | Sell | P&L | Held | Entry → Exit (KST) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | PTC Inc.(PTC) | 146.10 | 194.60 | +33.20% | 71.8h | 10-02 22:55 → 10-05 22:40 |
| win | Autodesk, Inc.(ADSK) | 210.90 | 225.10 | +6.73% | 94.7h | 10-02 00:05 → 10-05 22:45 |
| win | Western Digital Corporation(WDC) | 413.20 | 437.20 | +5.81% | 68.2h | 10-03 02:40 → 10-05 22:50 |
| win | EchoStar Corporation(ECHO) | 92.41 | 97.59 | +5.61% | 71.3h | 10-02 23:55 → 10-05 23:15 |
| win | Microsoft Corporation(MSFT) | 504.20 | 529.90 | +5.10% | 168.0h | 09-28 22:45 → 10-05 22:45 |
| loss | Blackstone Inc.(BX) | 115.30 | 110.40 | -4.25% | 71.0h | 10-02 23:40 → 10-05 22:40 |
| loss | Charter Communications, Inc.(CHTR) | 109.80 | 105.30 | -4.10% | 69.2h | 10-03 01:40 → 10-05 22:55 |
| loss | Alexandria Real Estate Equities(ARE) | 47.97 | 46.31 | -3.46% | 71.8h | 10-02 22:50 → 10-05 22:40 |
| loss | NetApp, Inc.(NTAP) | 230.40 | 222.50 | -3.43% | 68.1h | 10-03 03:00 → 10-05 23:05 |
| loss | Sandisk Corporation(SNDK) | 1,764 | 1,704 | -3.40% | 94.5h | 10-02 02:10 → 10-06 00:40 |
Full data — all 177 closed trades: CSV download · or query live via OneQAZ MCP.
Related
- All-time track record: /track-record/all-time/
As of 2026-10-06 (KST).
Disclaimer: OneQAZ figures are paper-trading research, not investment advice. Past simulated performance does not predict future real-money results.
Three ways to see OneQAZ — this post is the synthesis layer:
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