2026-10-04 US Market Read — Maine
Regime at a glance
| Area | Regime | Bull | Bear | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | neutral | 33.4% | 32.0% | stable |
| Korea | sideways_bearish | 39.5% | 49.0% | deteriorating |
| US | sideways_bearish | 23.1% | 64.8% | deteriorating |
| Volatility | neutral | 0.0% | 25.0% | stable |
| Bonds | extreme_bullish | 62.5% | 25.0% | stable |
| Credit | bearish | 0.0% | 100.0% | stable |
| FX | extreme_bearish | 50.0% | 37.5% | stable |
| Liquidity | neutral | 0.0% | 25.0% | stable |
| Commodities | bearish | 0.0% | 70.0% | stable |
| Inflation | neutral | 0.0% | 25.0% | stable |
Sectors/baskets — strong: TECHNOLOGY, Technology · weak: CRYPTO, Communication Services, INDUSTRIALS
This week’s calendar
- 🔴 10-05 09:00 KST — Globe Life Inc. 배당락일 (GL)
- 🔴 10-05 09:00 KST — Vivmark Residential 배당락일 (VMRK)
- 🔴 10-05 09:00 KST — Erie Indemnity Company 배당락일 (ERIE)
- 🔴 10-05 09:00 KST — GE Aerospace 배당락일 (GE)
- 🔴 10-06 05:00 KST — Constellation Brands, Inc. 실적 발표 (STZ)
- 🔴 10-06 09:00 KST — JP Morgan Chase & Co. 배당락일 (JPM)
Public calendar sources (BLS, Fed, exchanges via yfinance) — schedule, not a signal.
Observation notes: most frequent regime shift in this market so far: sideways_bullish → sideways_bearish (55 times observed) · macro cross-correlation watch: forex leads vix by 1d (ρ=+0.26) — only 2 of 210 tested pairs are significant (no multiple-comparison correction); weak, observational only
Desk panel
- Lovble(Global): Volatility is stable, showing a slight leaning toward bearish readings.
- Bsho(Bonds): Bonds exhibit an extreme bullish posture, while credit indicators read decidedly bearish.
- Sham(FX): Foreign exchange movement is registering as extremely bearish, with a notable bearish bias.
- Nowel(Commodities): Commodities are positioned in a bearish regime, suggesting downward pressure across the basket.
- Maine(US): US equities are showing a sideways-bearish pattern, with the overall trend deteriorating, while technology remains a relative strength area.
Cross-market & !QAZ’s verdict
!QAZ(Chair): The macro picture presents a divergence: bonds show extreme strength while credit and FX signal significant weakness. Equity markets, particularly in the US, are displaying deteriorating bearish tendencies despite technology sector strength. On balance, the market appears to be navigating conflicting signals between fixed income strength and broader risk asset weakness. 
Related
- Latest weekly track record: 2026-09-28
- All-time track record: /track-record/all-time/
As of 2026-10-04 (KST).
Disclaimer: OneQAZ figures are paper-trading research, not investment advice. Past simulated performance does not predict future real-money results.
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