2026-08-12 US Trading Journal — Maine
Key takeaways
- 256 closed trades, win rate 37.9%, expectancy -0.34% per trade.
- Profit factor 0.63 · avg win +1.52% vs avg loss -1.48% (R:R 1.03).
- Best +8.37% / worst -49.91% — every closed trade counted, losses included.
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Closed trades | 256 (97W / 159L) |
| Win rate | 37.9% |
| Expectancy / trade | -0.34% |
| Profit factor | 0.63 |
| Avg win / avg loss | +1.52% / -1.48% |
| Best / worst | +8.37% / -49.91% |
Recap
The day’s closed activity shows a mixed outcome. Out of the 256 trades executed, the win rate registered at 37.9%, with the overall expectancy calculated at -0.34% per trade. The profit factor of 0.63 suggests that the average magnitude of losses is slightly outweighing the average magnitude of gains. Notable positive returns were observed in names such as Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) at +8.37%, Blackstone Inc. (BX) at +5.81%, and Ares Management Corporation (ARES) at +5.25%. Conversely, significant drawdowns were recorded, most notably with Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) at -49.91%, alongside losses in Applovin Corporation (APP) and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD). The disparity between the best gain and the worst loss is considerable, indicating high variance in the recent trading period 
.
Lessons from Outcomes
The substantial negative outcomes, particularly the deep losses seen in MNST and APP, underscore the risk inherent in chasing large moves across disparate sectors. The data suggests that while high-conviction wins, such as those seen in the alternative asset space, can significantly lift the aggregate performance, they are insufficient to offset the impact of several large, outlier losses. The magnitude of the largest loss relative to the average gain suggests that position sizing relative to perceived risk was a significant factor in the overall negative expectancy 
.
For Next Time
The performance metrics point toward a period where the downside capture was pronounced. The structure of the results—a low profit factor coupled with a negative expectancy—indicates that the risk management framework absorbed several large negative deviations. The observed pattern suggests that while positive momentum can be captured effectively in certain areas, the overall regime appears to be one where downside protection is proving difficult to maintain across the board.
This research note is for analytical review purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Notable trades (top 5 wins · top 5 losses)
| Result | Symbol | Buy | Sell | P&L | Held | Entry → Exit (KST) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | Apollo Global Management, Inc.(APO) | 127.90 | 138.60 | +8.37% | 117.8h | 08-07 01:40 → 08-11 23:30 |
| win | Blackstone Inc.(BX) | 137.70 | 145.70 | +5.81% | 24.2h | 08-10 23:20 → 08-11 23:30 |
| win | Ares Management Corporation(ARES) | 135.20 | 142.30 | +5.25% | 23.2h | 08-11 00:20 → 08-11 23:30 |
| win | Dow Inc.(DOW) | 29.79 | 31.24 | +4.87% | 95.9h | 08-08 01:40 → 08-12 01:35 |
| win | LyondellBasell Industries NV(LYB) | 60.70 | 63.60 | +4.78% | 95.2h | 08-08 00:20 → 08-11 23:30 |
| loss | Monster Beverage Corporation(MNST) | 91.70 | 45.93 | -49.91% | 23.2h | 08-10 23:20 → 08-11 22:35 |
| loss | Applovin Corporation(APP) | 342.50 | 324.30 | -5.31% | 21.5h | 08-11 01:05 → 08-11 22:35 |
| loss | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.(AMD) | 489.00 | 465.20 | -4.87% | 140.9h | 08-06 01:40 → 08-11 22:35 |
| loss | Hewlett Packard Enterprise Comp(HPE) | 55.70 | 53.08 | -4.70% | 21.2h | 08-11 01:20 → 08-11 22:35 |
| loss | Deckers Outdoor Corporation(DECK) | 98.00 | 93.89 | -4.19% | 113.8h | 08-07 04:45 → 08-11 22:35 |
Full data — all 256 closed trades: CSV download · or query live via OneQAZ MCP.
Related
- All-time track record: /track-record/all-time/
As of 2026-08-12 (KST).
Disclaimer: OneQAZ figures are paper-trading research, not investment advice. Past simulated performance does not predict future real-money results.
Three ways to see OneQAZ — this post is the synthesis layer:
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