2026-08-20 US Trading Journal — Maine
Key takeaways
- 314 closed trades, win rate 49.0%, expectancy +0.63% per trade.
- Profit factor 1.59 · avg win +3.48% vs avg loss -2.10% (R:R 1.66).
- Best +84.65% / worst -8.00% — every closed trade counted, losses included.
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Closed trades | 314 (154W / 160L) |
| Win rate | 49.0% |
| Expectancy / trade | +0.63% |
| Profit factor | 1.59 |
| Avg win / avg loss | +3.48% / -2.10% |
| Best / worst | +84.65% / -8.00% |
Recap
The trading session saw a notable volume of closed positions, totaling 314 trades. The overall performance metrics indicate a positive expectancy of +0.63% per trade and a profit factor of 1.59. The average winning trade realized a gain of +3.48%, which was substantially larger than the average loss of -2.10%. The range of outcomes was wide, highlighted by a best performance of +84.65% on MRNA and a worst outcome of -8.00% on NUE. The success on names like MRNA and T(EL) provided some genuine lift today 
.
Observations on Outcomes
The mix of results shows a clear differentiation in outcome magnitude. While the win rate settled at 49.0%, the positive skew, evidenced by the average win being significantly larger than the average loss, suggests that the successful trades were capable of capturing considerable upside. The losses incurred on names such as NUE and VRT, while substantial in percentage terms, were balanced by the outsized gains seen elsewhere. It is always encouraging to see the potential for significant positive returns realized across the board 
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Lessons from Underperformance
The losses on INTC and VRT, among others, underscore the importance of understanding the underlying catalysts for decline. These negative outcomes suggest that when the market sentiment shifts against a specific sector or name, the downside can materialize with considerable force, even when the initial thesis was sound. The magnitude of the losses relative to the gains reminds one that even a positive expectancy can be tempered by a few outlier negative events 
.
For Next Time
The data reflects a pattern where capturing large positive moves appears to be a more reliable source of positive expected value than avoiding all negative movements. The breadth of the outcomes, from the best to the worst, simply confirms the inherent variability within US equities. This paper-trading research serves as a useful data point on the current risk/reward profile observed across the closed trades.
Notable trades (top 5 wins · top 5 losses)
| Result | Symbol | Buy | Sell | P&L | Held | Entry → Exit (KST) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | Moderna, Inc.(MRNA) | 64.23 | 118.60 | +84.65% | 161.9h | 08-13 04:40 → 08-19 22:35 |
| win | Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (T(EL) | 84.50 | 96.20 | +13.85% | 45.9h | 08-18 00:40 → 08-19 22:35 |
| win | Marvell Technology, Inc.(MRVL) | 214.30 | 238.00 | +11.06% | 18.2h | 08-19 04:25 → 08-19 22:35 |
| win | Merck & Company, Inc.(MRK) | 135.60 | 147.00 | +8.41% | 46.5h | 08-18 00:05 → 08-19 22:35 |
| win | Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.(JKHY) | 152.00 | 164.30 | +8.09% | 165.2h | 08-13 01:50 → 08-19 23:05 |
| loss | Nucor Corporation(NUE) | 264.90 | 243.70 | -8.00% | 23.0h | 08-19 04:10 → 08-20 03:10 |
| loss | Vertiv Holdings, LLC(VRT) | 278.50 | 259.30 | -6.89% | 24.1h | 08-18 23:00 → 08-19 23:05 |
| loss | Intel Corporation(INTC) | 98.64 | 91.92 | -6.81% | 24.2h | 08-18 22:50 → 08-19 23:05 |
| loss | Qnity Electronics, Inc.(Q) | 136.50 | 128.00 | -6.23% | 24.2h | 08-18 22:50 → 08-19 23:05 |
| loss | Steel Dynamics, Inc.(STLD) | 244.80 | 229.90 | -6.09% | 1.2h | 08-20 01:55 → 08-20 03:10 |
Full data — all 314 closed trades: CSV download · or query live via OneQAZ MCP.
Related
- All-time track record: /track-record/all-time/
As of 2026-08-20 (KST).
Disclaimer: OneQAZ figures are paper-trading research, not investment advice. Past simulated performance does not predict future real-money results.
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