2026-08-21 US Trading Journal — Maine
Key takeaways
- 260 closed trades, win rate 30.8%, expectancy -0.92% per trade.
- Profit factor 0.40 · avg win +1.95% vs avg loss -2.20% (R:R 0.89).
- Best +6.97% / worst -9.77% — every closed trade counted, losses included.
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Closed trades | 260 (80W / 180L) |
| Win rate | 30.8% |
| Expectancy / trade | -0.92% |
| Profit factor | 0.40 |
| Avg win / avg loss | +1.95% / -2.20% |
| Best / worst | +6.97% / -9.77% |
Recap
The day’s closed trading activity reflects a challenging environment. Out of the 260 trades executed, the win rate settled at 30.8%, with an overall expectancy of -0.92% per trade. The profit factor of 0.40 indicates that the average losses significantly outweighed the average gains, as evidenced by the average win of +1.95% against an average loss of -2.20%. Notable positive outcomes included gains on NDSN (+6.97%), TPL (+6.27%), and DE (+6.02%). Conversely, the losses were substantial, highlighted by the -9.77% on WMT and multiple losses on MRNA (-8.80%, -6.66%). 
Observations
The disparity between the average win and average loss suggests that while some profitable trades were captured, the magnitude of the losses tended to dominate the overall performance metric. The depth of the negative outcomes, particularly with certain names, suggests that when directional conviction was misplaced, the drawdown potential was considerable. 
For next time
The performance metrics suggest that the risk taken on losing trades has been disproportionately large relative to the gains realized on winning trades. The experience with the significant drawdowns on specific names underscores the difficulty in maintaining positive expected value when the loss side of the distribution is weighted so heavily. 
This research note reflects a simulation of past trading activity and does not constitute investment advice.
Notable trades (top 5 wins · top 5 losses)
| Result | Symbol | Buy | Sell | P&L | Held | Entry → Exit (KST) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | Nordson Corporation(NDSN) | 308.60 | 330.10 | +6.97% | 168.0h | 08-14 00:20 → 08-21 00:20 |
| win | Texas Pacific Land Corporation(TPL) | 370.20 | 393.40 | +6.27% | 21.8h | 08-20 02:50 → 08-21 00:35 |
| win | Deere & Company(DE) | 592.70 | 628.40 | +6.02% | 44.9h | 08-19 04:25 → 08-21 01:20 |
| win | Occidental Petroleum Corporatio(OXY) | 59.03 | 61.84 | +4.76% | 67.7h | 08-18 03:25 → 08-20 23:05 |
| win | Danaher Corporation(DHR) | 210.30 | 219.70 | +4.47% | 24.8h | 08-20 00:10 → 08-21 01:00 |
| loss | Walmart Inc.(WMT) | 115.70 | 104.40 | -9.77% | 44.6h | 08-19 02:10 → 08-20 22:45 |
| loss | Moderna, Inc.(MRNA) | 156.80 | 143.00 | -8.80% | 18.0h | 08-20 04:45 → 08-20 22:45 |
| loss | Moderna, Inc.(MRNA) | 139.60 | 130.30 | -6.66% | 1.7h | 08-21 00:10 → 08-21 01:50 |
| loss | Carnival Corporation Ltd.(CCL) | 27.58 | 25.90 | -6.09% | 46.4h | 08-19 00:20 → 08-20 22:45 |
| loss | Ralph Lauren Corporation(RL) | 387.50 | 365.40 | -5.70% | 143.1h | 08-14 23:40 → 08-20 22:45 |
Full data — all 260 closed trades: CSV download · or query live via OneQAZ MCP.
Related
- All-time track record: /track-record/all-time/
As of 2026-08-21 (KST).
Disclaimer: OneQAZ figures are paper-trading research, not investment advice. Past simulated performance does not predict future real-money results.
Three ways to see OneQAZ — this post is the synthesis layer:
- Live — dashboard stream (the system’s screen, 24/7)
- Synthesis — blog.oneqaz.com (daily reads · journals · track record)
- Query — OneQAZ MCP (connect an AI to live data)