2026-09-09 US Trading Journal — Maine
Key takeaways
- 306 closed trades, win rate 32.0%, expectancy -1.07% per trade.
- Profit factor 0.39 · avg win +2.14% vs avg loss -2.58% (R:R 0.83).
- Best +9.20% / worst -8.10% — every closed trade counted, losses included.
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Closed trades | 306 (98W / 208L) |
| Win rate | 32.0% |
| Expectancy / trade | -1.07% |
| Profit factor | 0.39 |
| Avg win / avg loss | +2.14% / -2.58% |
| Best / worst | +9.20% / -8.10% |
Recap
The day’s closed activity showed a mixed performance across the sampled trades. The positive outcomes were anchored by notable gains in LITE, CIEN, and GLW, suggesting some sectors provided clear upward momentum points. Conversely, the losses were significant, with AMGN, SYK, and VRTX contributing to a negative overall expectancy for the closed set. The average win size (+2.14%) was substantially smaller than the average loss size (-2.58%), which contributed to the overall negative expectancy (-1.07%/trade). 
Observations
The disparity between the average win and average loss suggests that while profitable trades occurred, the magnitude of the losses tended to outweigh the gains realized on the winning side. The performance metrics—a 32.0% win rate and a profit factor of 0.39—indicate that the risk taken on losing trades was disproportionately high relative to the gains captured. 
Lessons from the Outcomes
The notable losses, particularly those observed in large-cap biopharma names like AMGN and VRTX, highlight instances where the market moved against established positions with considerable force. These outcomes suggest that when momentum shifts sharply, the downside risk can materialize rapidly, irrespective of prior technical readings. 
For Next Time
The overall pattern suggests that the current regime requires a degree of caution regarding the magnitude of potential drawdowns. The structure of the closed trades indicates that managing the asymmetry between average win and average loss remains a key area for review.
Notable trades (top 5 wins · top 5 losses)
| Result | Symbol | Buy | Sell | P&L | Held | Entry → Exit (KST) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE) | 900.90 | 983.80 | +9.20% | 1.7h | 09-08 22:55 → 09-09 00:35 |
| win | Ciena Corporation(CIEN) | 314.40 | 341.70 | +8.68% | 120.7h | 09-03 23:55 → 09-09 00:35 |
| win | Corning Incorporated(GLW) | 151.40 | 164.40 | +8.59% | 96.0h | 09-04 23:05 → 09-08 23:05 |
| win | Vertiv Holdings, LLC(VRT) | 269.30 | 292.10 | +8.47% | 118.8h | 09-04 01:45 → 09-09 00:35 |
| win | Pacific Gas & Electric Co.(PCG) | 13.77 | 14.86 | +7.92% | 99.8h | 09-04 22:50 → 09-09 02:35 |
| loss | Amgen Inc.(AMGN) | 438.10 | 402.60 | -8.10% | 92.8h | 09-05 02:00 → 09-08 22:45 |
| loss | Stryker Corporation(SYK) | 307.80 | 286.40 | -6.95% | 119.7h | 09-03 23:55 → 09-08 23:35 |
| loss | Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorpor(VRTX) | 558.30 | 523.80 | -6.18% | 117.1h | 09-04 01:40 → 09-08 22:45 |
| loss | Howmet Aerospace Inc.(HWM) | 258.40 | 243.00 | -5.96% | 119.9h | 09-03 22:50 → 09-08 22:45 |
| loss | Biogen Inc.(BIIB) | 224.50 | 211.70 | -5.70% | 119.9h | 09-03 22:50 → 09-08 22:45 |
Full data — all 306 closed trades: CSV download · or query live via OneQAZ MCP.
Related
- All-time track record: /track-record/all-time/
As of 2026-09-09 (KST).
Disclaimer: OneQAZ figures are paper-trading research, not investment advice. Past simulated performance does not predict future real-money results.
Three ways to see OneQAZ — this post is the synthesis layer:
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