2026-09-23 US Trading Journal — Maine
Key takeaways
- 76 closed trades, win rate 31.6%, expectancy -1.01% per trade.
- Profit factor 0.31 · avg win +1.41% vs avg loss -2.12% (R:R 0.67).
- Best +4.11% / worst -4.72% — every closed trade counted, losses included.
Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Closed trades | 76 (24W / 52L) |
| Win rate | 31.6% |
| Expectancy / trade | -1.01% |
| Profit factor | 0.31 |
| Avg win / avg loss | +1.41% / -2.12% |
| Best / worst | +4.11% / -4.72% |
Recap
The day’s closed activity showed a mixed performance profile. Out of the 76 trades closed, the win rate settled at 31.6%. The average expected return per trade was negative at -1.01%, suggesting that the magnitude of losses outweighed the gains across the sampled trades. The profit factor of 0.31 indicates that the total gains were less than one-third of the total losses. Notable positive outcomes included gains in TER (+4.11%), MTD (+3.97%), and SNDK (+3.91%). Conversely, the largest drawdowns were observed in EXPE (-4.72%), SCHW (-4.11%), and CSCO (-3.93%). The disparity between the average win (+1.41%) and average loss (-2.12%) suggests that the losing trades were significantly larger in magnitude than the winning ones 
.
Lessons from Drawdowns
The trades that concluded at a loss, particularly those involving EXPE, SCHW, and CSCO, highlight instances where the initial directional conviction proved insufficient against prevailing market resistance. The depth of the losses, especially the -4.72% recorded on EXPE, suggests that the market structure was capable of absorbing selling pressure beyond the initial expected volatility range. These outcomes emphasize that the downside risk parameters were breached on several occasions, leading to a cumulative negative expectancy across the closed set 
.
Observations
The performance metrics—specifically the low profit factor and negative expectancy—point to a period where the capital deployed into losing trades was disproportionately large relative to the gains captured. The best single outcome (+4.11%) was significantly smaller in magnitude than the worst single outcome (-4.72%), indicating a notable asymmetry in risk realization today. This pattern suggests that while some names provided clear upward momentum, the overall environment resulted in a net drag on capital 
.
Notable trades (top 5 wins · top 5 losses)
| Result | Symbol | Buy | Sell | P&L | Held | Entry → Exit (KST) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | Teradyne, Inc.(TER) | 377.50 | 393.00 | +4.11% | 3.6h | 09-22 22:45 → 09-23 02:20 |
| win | Mettler-Toledo International, I(MTD) | 1,436 | 1,493 | +3.97% | 4.6h | 09-22 23:15 → 09-23 03:50 |
| win | Sandisk Corporation(SNDK) | 1,814 | 1,885 | +3.91% | 0.8h | 09-22 22:45 → 09-22 23:35 |
| win | Illumina, Inc.(ILMN) | 235.90 | 245.10 | +3.90% | 2.8h | 09-22 22:45 → 09-23 01:30 |
| win | Marathon Petroleum Corporation(MPC) | 389.00 | 400.90 | +3.06% | 2.8h | 09-22 22:45 → 09-23 01:30 |
| loss | Expedia Group, Inc.(EXPE) | 283.70 | 270.30 | -4.72% | 0.8h | 09-22 22:45 → 09-22 23:35 |
| loss | Charles Schwab Corporation (The(SCHW) | 104.70 | 100.40 | -4.11% | 0.8h | 09-22 22:45 → 09-22 23:35 |
| loss | Cisco Systems, Inc.(CSCO) | 109.40 | 105.10 | -3.93% | 2.3h | 09-22 22:45 → 09-23 01:05 |
| loss | Gen Digital Inc.(GEN) | 29.22 | 28.11 | -3.80% | 0.7h | 09-22 22:55 → 09-22 23:35 |
| loss | Deckers Outdoor Corporation(DECK) | 82.76 | 79.68 | -3.72% | 1.9h | 09-22 22:45 → 09-23 00:40 |
Full data — all 76 closed trades: CSV download · or query live via OneQAZ MCP.
Related
- All-time track record: /track-record/all-time/
As of 2026-09-23 (KST).
Disclaimer: OneQAZ figures are paper-trading research, not investment advice. Past simulated performance does not predict future real-money results.
Three ways to see OneQAZ — this post is the synthesis layer:
- Live — dashboard stream (the system’s screen, 24/7)
- Synthesis — blog.oneqaz.com (daily reads · journals · track record)
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